Climatic Determinants of Japanese Encephalitis in Bihar State of India: A Time-Series Poisson Regression Analysis

Pravin M Pisudde, Praveen Kumar, Pradhan Parth Sarthi, Pradeep R Deshmukh

Abstract


World’s 60% population lives in regions endemic for Japanese Encephalitis (JE), which affects approximately three billion people. Southeast Asia, especially India, is also not an exception to JE. The present study was carried out to know about the climatic determinants that affect occurrence and transmission of JE cases. The data on maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall was retrieved for the period from 2009 to 2014. Similarly, JE surveillance data was also retrieved for the same period. Time-series Poisson regression analysis was used to quantify the association between climatic conditions and JE incidences. Among the predictors, time was negatively associated, number of JE cases during last month, relative humidity (1-month lag) and rainfall (2-month lag) were positively associated while average temperature (3-month lag) has no significant association with JE incidence. This will help in early forecasting of the JE incidences, if future climate over the area are known in advance.


Keywords


Rainfall, Temperature, Relative humidity, Climate, Japanese Encephalitis, Bihar, Poisson regression analysis

Full Text:

PDF

References


Campbell G, Hills S, Fischer M et al. Estimated global

incidence of Japanese encephalitis: Bull World Health

Organ 2011 Oct 1; 89(10): 766-74.

Erlanger TE, Weiss S, Keiser J et al. Past, present, and

future of Japanese Encephalitis. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009

Jan; 15(1): 1-7.

Shresta S, Awale P, Neupane S et al. Japanese

Encephalitis in children admitted at Patan Hospital. J

Nepal Paediatr Soc. [Internet]. 2009 Jan 30 [cited 2016

Jul 31]; 29(1). Available from: http://www.nepjol.info/

index.php/JNPS/article/view/1595.

Kabilan L, Rajendran R, Arunachalam N et al. Japanese

encephalitis in India: An overview. Indian J Pediatr.

(7): 609-15.

Potula R, Badrinath S, Srinivasan S. Japanese

encephalitis in and around Pondicherry, South India:

A clinical appraisal and prognostic indicators for the

outcome. J Trop Pediatr. 2003 Feb; 49(1): 48-53.

Government of India, NVBDCP, Directorate General of

health services, Ministry of health and family welfare.

National Vector Borne Disease Control Program. Annual

Report 2014-15 [Internet]. New Delhi; Available

from: http://www.nvbdcp.gov.in/Doc/Annual-report-

NVBDCP-2014-15.pdf.

Tewari SC, Thenmozhi V, Arunachalam N et al.

Desiccated vector mosquitoes used for the surveillance

of Japanese encephalitis virus activity in endemic

southern India. Trop Med Int Health 2008 Feb 1; 13(2):

-90.

Jmor F, Emsley HCA, Fischer M et al. The incidence of

acute encephalitis syndrome in Western industrialised

and tropical countries. Virol J. 2008; 5: 134.

Solomon S. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

editors. Climate change 2007: The physical science

basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth

Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change. Cambridge ; New York: Cambridge

University Press 2007; 996.

Field C, Barros V, Dokken D et al. Climate Change

: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part

A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of

Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report

of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, editor.

United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University

Press 2014; 1132.

Government of Bihar. State Profile [Internet]. [cited

Oct 4]. Available from: http://gov.bih.nic.in/

Profile/default.htm.

Government of Bihar. Climate Profile of Bihar [Internet].

[cited 2015 Oct 4]. Available from: http://gov.bih.nic.

in/Profile/climate.htm.

Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R et al. The NCEP/NCAR

-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. 1996

Mar 1; 77(3): 437-71.

Pai DS, Sridhar L, Rajeevan M, Sreejith OP, Satbhai NS,

Mukhopadyay B. Development of a new high spatial

resolution ( 0 . 25 ° × 0 . 25 ° ) Long Period ( 1901-

) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and

its comparison with existing data sets over the region.

Mausam. 2014;65(1):1-18.

Parth Sarthi P, Kumar P, Ghosh S. Possible future

rainfall over Gangetic Plains (GP), India, in multimodel

simulations of CMIP3 and CMIP5. Theor Appl

Climatol. 2016;124(3-4):691-701. doi:10.1007/s00704-

-1447-5.

Government of India. Guidelines for surveillance of

acute encephalitis syndrome (with special reference

to Japanese Encephalitis). Directorate of National

Vector Borne Diseases Control Programme, Directorate

General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and

Family Welfare. 2006.

Bagcchi S. India intensifies Japanese encephalitis

immunisation. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2014

Aug; 14(8): 682.

Vashishtha VM, Ramachandran VG. Vaccination policy

for Japanese encephalitis in India: Tread with caution!

Indian Pediatr. 2015; 52(10): 837-39.

Bi P, Zhang Y, Parton KA. Weather variables and

Japanese encephalitis in the metropolitan area of

Jinan city, China. J Infect. 2007 Dec; 55(6): 551-56.

Russell RC. Ross River virus: Ecology and distribution.

Annu Rev Entomol. 2002; 47: 1-31.

Geng G. Epidemiology. 2nd edn. Beijing: People’s

Medical Publishing House 1996; 2.

XU Z. Vector borne infectious diseases. Ningxia People’s

Publishing House 1990.

Bi P, Tong S, Donald K e al. Climate variability and

transmission of Japanese encephalitis in Eastern China.

Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2003 Sep 1; 3(3): 111-15.

Khan SA, Narain K, Handigue R et al. Role of some

environmental factors in modulating seasonal

abundance of potential Japanese encephalitis vectors

in Assam, India. Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public

Health 1996 Jun; 27(2): 382-91.

Sakai T, Takahashi K, Hisasue S et al. Meteorological

factors involved in Japanese encephalitis virus infectionin cattle. Nihon Juigaku Zasshi Jpn J Vet Sci. 1990 Feb;

(1): 121-27.

Hales S, de Wet N, Maindonald J et al. Potential effect of

population and climate changes on global distribution

of dengue fever: An empirical model. The Lancet 2002

Sep 14; 360(9336): 830-34.

Tong S, Bi P, Donald K et al. Climate variability and

Ross River virus transmission. J Epidemiol Community

Health 2002 Aug 1; 56(8): 617-21.

Parton KA, Ni J. Climatic variables and transmission of

malaria: a 12-year data analysis in Shuchen County,

China. Public Health Rep. 2003; 118: 65.

McMichael AJ. World Health Organization, editors.

Climate change and human health: Risks and responses.

Geneva: World Health Organization 2003; 322.

Costa EAP de A, Santos EM de M, Correia JC et al. Impact

of small variations in temperature and humidity on the

reproductive activity and survival of Aedesaegypti

(Diptera, Culicidae). Rev Bras Entomol. 2010; 54(3):

-93.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2018 Journal of Communicable Diseases

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.