Climatic Determinants of Japanese Encephalitis in Bihar State of India: A Time-Series Poisson Regression Analysis

Pravin M Pisudde, Praveen Kumar, Pradhan Parth Sarthi, Pradeep R Deshmukh


World’s 60% population lives in regions endemic for Japanese Encephalitis (JE), which affects approximately three billion people. Southeast Asia, especially India, is also not an exception to JE. The present study was carried out to know about the climatic determinants that affect occurrence and transmission of JE cases. The data on maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall was retrieved for the period from 2009 to 2014. Similarly, JE surveillance data was also retrieved for the same period. Time-series Poisson regression analysis was used to quantify the association between climatic conditions and JE incidences. Among the predictors, time was negatively associated, number of JE cases during last month, relative humidity (1-month lag) and rainfall (2-month lag) were positively associated while average temperature (3-month lag) has no significant association with JE incidence. This will help in early forecasting of the JE incidences, if future climate over the area are known in advance.


Rainfall, Temperature, Relative humidity, Climate, Japanese Encephalitis, Bihar, Poisson regression analysis

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